“Asset class returns, in our opinion, are largely driven by changes in expectations of economic growth and inflation. That said, economic and market outcomes are uncertain; changes to expectations are unpredictable for practical investment purposes. Surprises are common and have an underappreciated influence on long-term asset class returns. However economic and market outcomes are not arbitrary; while very different in nature and critically consequential to investor wealth, the range of possible scenarios is limited. Less unpredictable than changes to expectations are the behavioural responses of market participants to each type of change i.e. what happens to broad asset class prices given a certain change to growth or inflation expectations is somewhat predictable...”